Positives for Welsh Rugby

• Bradley Davies.  Was immense in his first game, getting over the sad passing of his Mother to produce one of the performances of the series as far as Wales is concerned.  Carried on in excellent form and it was unlucky that he had to limp off early in the last game.  Has shown himself to be real international class and with Ian Evans on his way back now it could well be an interesting competition at lock for a long time to come yet.
• Sam Warbuton.  Bradley’s regional team mate only had the one start, vs Italy, but put in what had to be close to a man of the match performance.  Carried superbly, tackled like a demon and did soem of the best rucking I have seen in a long time.  Let’s not get ahead of ourselves but Warbuton does look likely to show us that there is life after Martyn Williams.  In my opinion he should be taken to New Zealand and leave Nugget to get some rest – let’s see what Sam can do against the best in the world.
• Gethin and Mike.  We saw in the last game just how important these two are to the Welsh game plan.  Some players in their positions may be able to ‘do a job’, Richie Rees especially did far better than I expected, but no player we have is even close to what these 2 can produce.  Wrap them in cotton wool – we desperately need them for the World Cup.
• Shane Williams.  The little wizard is back to his best, rumours of his demise have obviously been exaggerated – was at the heart of everything positive for Wales for most of the tournament.  There may be talent coming through in the likes of Halfpenny, Tom James and Tom Prydie – but none can create something from nothing in quite the same was as ‘ickle’.

And, um, that’s about it.  Some decent performances, Stephen Jones did some very good stuff but was also stuttering at times.  Jamie Roberts, despite his detractors, did what was asked – we just need to get people running off him more rather than waiting for breakdown (presumably the game plan).  Some others looked to be slowly finding some form as the tournament went on.

Overall it was a tournament of negatives, one that we will look back on with disappointment.  But at least there were some positives that us Welsh rugby fans can take out of this tournament and give us some hope looking forward to the New Zealand summer tour and Autumn Internationals – against some of the biggest names in World rugby

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Friends are making jokes about it. Because that is what this has become, a joke. On the one hand we have shown we have the talent to dominate periods of matches, to take the game to them. On the other hand it takes 60 minutes for us to remember how… as an Ospreys fan I am used to that but I was hoping Wales would be better, seems they have caught the O’s disease.

What frustrated me most wasn’t that France deserved to win it – they didn’t do much, but then they didn’t have to. What was frustrating was we deserved to lose it. France played it simple because all they had to do was make tackles and wait for us to give it to them. We just made too many mistakes

Mistakes

There were plenty of these, Gatland and co certainly are left with questions to be answered – why our tactics have been the same constantly when it is obvious teams have worked us out (2 weeks running we have been confused by a blitz defence until at least half time).

But to be honest this time the players have to take more of the blame. There were elementary mistakes galore. I didn’t see the final tally but the BBC said 21 unforced errors with 10 minutes to go. You can’t make that many and hope to win a test match against average opposition – never mind against a team as good as France.

The lineout was a mess…. I think we have seen that Huw Bennett is not up to international rugby. He may add grunt around the park but we can not afford to consistently lose lineout ball as soon as we get ourselves into an attacking position. Matthew Rees is ahead of him in the pecking order but I think it is time to put Hibbard and Owens there as well.

Handling errors were shocking. Passes thrown blindly (Martyn Williams directly into touch), poorly (Hook to Charteris) or on automatic (Hook’s interception). 3 Interception tries this tournament is not good enough, we are giving teams games on a plate. But not just that the basic hands are letting us down, knock ons for no reason, dropped passes with no pressure, passes lobbed forwards or even when flat miles in front of the player (I’m looking at you again Hook).

The breakdown was at times improved, thanks in part to a magnificent effort by Bradley Davies even if you discount the emotional circumstances. But too often the runner was isolated, partly the fault of the runners for not taking support with them and partly the fault of the support. Jonathan Thomas was our hope for helping the breakdown and he was hit and miss… for periods of the game he did what we wanted, securing us quick ball, but for others he seemed to be missing.

The scrum was interesting. Going from hammered to winning and back to hammered on a regular basis. This is the same front row that destroyed Leicester in the Heineken cup so there should be no excuses.

Our backline lacked invention in the first half – it was simply the blind, blind, wide game we always play. I was texting a friend towards the end asking when Stephen Jones stopped being world class and just started going through the motions. How wrong he proved me in the 2nd half but it shouldn’t take a half time talk to change tactics. I don’t know how rigid Gatland has them playing but experienced players like Wellies should be able to alter a game plan far earlier if it isn’t working.

Players

A lot of negatives and not a lot of positives. As has been said Bradley Davies was superb… our best carrier by a long shot, a safe lineout option and a great rucker. If Evans comes back into form there is going to be one hell of a battle between Bradley Davies, Ian Evans and Alun Wyn Jones.

But there were a lot of negatives. Paul James’ work rate was again lacking – we know he is not Gethin but I would have thought he could have reproduced the work rate he has shown for the Ospreys this season. Apparently not.

Ryan was again a mixed bag, but to be honest the whole backrow misfired again and what really worried me is Martyn Williams. Hr is not the same player of even a year ago. I had hoped this was because Andy Powell was being used as a wide runner so he didn’t have the support. Whilst he didn’t play especially badly nothing about his game rose above average for me – and that game may well have suited the faster paced, harder running of Warburton. I don’t think it’s time to throw him out but I would like to see Warburton finish the Championship now to give him the experience ahead of a World Cup season.

Richie Rees didn’t let anyone down. Felt he drifted out of the game at times but in the 2nd half he injected some pace when needed, not just with the tap but also moving the ball much faster. It was as he has done when he has come on for Wales and I think the tactics of playing slower was not suiting his game. Very impressed considering I once wrote him off even as a regional player.

Jamie Roberts – butchered one chance, ran hard but I was hoping for more finesse from him now he has become more experienced as a 12. I know he is never going to be giving Henson like touches but a better awareness of what is around him would be useful But since James Hook was outside him maybe I can’t blame him for not passing.

I’m a stated James Hook fan but that was a woeful performance today. The interception try is becoming a trademark of his – running a move even when it is not on. But his defence was interesting positionally (in my opinion, posters on this thread on rugby rebels disagree with me so I am interested in looking again). His awareness was poor, his kicking average and all in all that was not a performance worthy of more caps. I am really not convinced by him at 13. Yes we need creativity but I question him being an outside centre. For me he is a 10/12 who can, when desperate, play 13/15. But I know many disagree.

Shane, pass aside, is finding his form again, which is great news. And Halfpenny is starting to get his groove back after a poor start to the season – I was especially impressed by his work under the high ball.

Lee Byrne was one hell of a mixed bag. Certainly not back to his best form he still kicked well, defended well and hit the line well (most of the time). But those kicks to touch, or more accurately not to touch, were wasteful and potentially cost us.

Misc

On the note of kicking – how much better was the kicking when we played the touchlines, both kicking in and the tramlines. We started gaining position, territtory. I know Warren gatland and Sean prefer the middle field kick and press – but it doesn’t work these days, time to change things.

Our defence needs changing as well. It held well enough, the tries were interceptions after all. But it used to be a weapon, a blitz in their face causing mistakes. Not any more. I know we changed it last season but time to say it’s not working and change back.

What is most frustrating about all this is that we are good enough to be winning these games, we show it in the game. But simple mistakes, tactically and by players, loses us position, ball and the game – yet again. The players need to take a long hard look at themselves. These are basic, unforced errors… and we are losing because they are playing like amateurs at times.

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The elbow injury he sustained vs Scotland has ruled him out of the 6 Nations, with a likely lay off time of 12 weeks (disappointingly also missing the Osreys’ Heineken Cup quarter final in France). This is a big blow to Wales who have, in my opinion, been suffering at ruck time.

Whilst Alun is not the dog of someone like Gough (beng more of a ‘flyer’) he still puts in some vital work at the breakdown, and was one of the few to show up with some decent carrying and workrate vs Scotland. Given that Jonathon Thomas is likely to move across from 2nd row to 6 (and rightly so, he is too lightweight to be an international 2nd row) in the absence of Andy Powell this is going to mean all change at 2nd row.

Ian Gough, Bradley Davies, Deniol Jones and Luke Charteris are the current locks in the squad and smart money is on Bradley taking one of the roles after an impressive showing from the bench. Luke Charteris has long been a favourite of Gatland’s and has been played a fair amount of international rugby recently, whilst Gough has found himself more in international wilderness and Jones has barely been mentioned.

My preference would be for Gough and Davies. We saw vs Scotland how having lightweight 2nd rows was an issue when it come to clearing rucks, and JT is best served on the flank anyway (the other option is him continuing at 2nd row with Dan Lydiate playing blindside). Both Gough and Bradley Davies have a huge amount of ‘dog’ about them, are quality clearers of rucks and will give our tight 5 more ‘oomph’, something it was severely lacking vs Scotland.

But however we look at it the loss of Alun Wyn Jones is a big blow. We need the incoming players to step up to the plate – not something that has happened all that often in the last couple of years.

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This is a MAJOR loss for Wales as far as I am concerned.  On one hand we have a backrow that is far more balanced now.  Andy Powell has been moved to 8, his natural position.  That is great news in itself as he has been truly shocking at 6 and Gatland must have been mad to pick him there in the first place.  Dan Lydiate coming into the backrow at 6 means we now have a natural 6 on the field.

Ryan’s form though has been excellent, stepping up several gears from last season.  He is no longer the dynamic ball carrier he was, but a change in the rules of the game mean that speed from the base is as important as power, which coupled with his change in bodyshape has stopped him being as effective.  But he has been effective, and his work at the breakdown has been exemplary, which is lucky since he was always doing Andy Powell’s job as well.

Now we have an 8 ready to do an 8′s job, and a 6 ready to do a 6′s.  But Andy Powell lacks the discipline needed in a breakdown contest, and against the Aussies we WILL be in a breakdown contest.  Worse he will be providing no support to teh inexperienced Lydiate who is making his first start – Lydiate will have to be supporting Martyn Williams alone, not with help from 8.

Which makes me wonder why it isn’t Jonathon Thomas at blindside.  He is, presumably, kept on the bench as he has to be cover for 2nd row with Bradley Davies injured – but I would rather have seen us take that risk and put in the experienced, talented and, in my opinion, on form JT against one of, if not the, best blindside in the world – Rocky Elsom.

Asking Lydiate to take on Rocky Elsom is asking a massive amount.  the guy has a lot of talent and even more potential.  but is he there yet?  i admit I haven’t seen him that much but from what I have seen I see a player who is a couple of years away from that level.

I hope I am wrong, but these changes have me really worried.  And for those who were wondering, Gethin Jenkins takes over the captaincy from Ryan Jones and Sam Warburton takes Dan Lydiate’s place on the bench.

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Bradley Davies injured his ankle on Tuesday and will be replaced on the Welsh bench by Jonathon Thomas, the Ospreys blindside flanker who has been playing most of his rugby at 2nd row this season.

Stoddart has a hamstring tear which will see him having to go tthrough 2 to 3 weeks rehabilitation.

No decision yet made on whether Morgan Stoddart will be replaced. Bradley will remain with the training squad ahead of a final assessment of his injury early next week.

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But I have seen on forums, twitter, etc people saying this is an impossible task… and I have to disagree.

In my mind rugby at international level is as poor as it has been for quite a long time. Australia are struggling, New Zealand don’t look anywhere near as commanding as they usually do, England have been poor, France hit and miss and Ireland won a Grand Slam that, whilst deserved, they never really had to hit top gear to attain. Only South Africa can claim to be on any real form and even then i would argue they are not as packed with world class quality as times gone by.

It’s all in the mind

This allows Wales some comfort in their own heads. We have struggled against Southern Hemisphere sides before not just because of their undoubted talent but because we beat ourselves before we step out, we consider them far better than us. Right now this is not the case… the are cracks in the armour, especially that of the All Blacks, and our players should be aware of that. These are not invincible teams.

Which is why Gatland is out at the moment, talking to journalists about how good New Zealand teams used to be, about how they were invincible. Operative word, were. Not any more. That is the message he is trying to get across… believe we will win and we have a much better chance of doing so. The crowd should also listen to this. We need to believe.

Game Styles

Now to show my complete lack of research… I read somewhere that someone was saying we are in trouble because the Aussies style suits the New Zealand game, making them easier to beat, and that we have a similar style to the Aussies. Now I think it was just an opinion on a rugby forum so perhaps not to be taken too seriously, but it also raises a good point.

No, not that we have a similar style to the Aussies, we don’t, but that how we tackle the All Blacks matters. Look at South Africa, they have given a couple of master classes in how to dominate the Kiwis, master classes I hope we were paying attention to.

They went at it with the same attitude as Dads Army; “they don’t like it up ‘em”… and they were right. The South Africans took the ball on at pace, they hammered into the tackles… but more they kicked long, chased hard and harried constantly. they played everything at a huge tempo, in attack and defence. They smashed into defenders, sprinted into rucks, harried, chased, fought and kicked.

In short, New Zealand couldn’t live with that kind of intensity, that kind of pressure. they started making simple mistakes, bad passes, dropped catches etc, because they were rattled. And that is a game we can play. Forget romantic notions of the ‘Welsh way’, Warren Gatland threw that out ages ago, what we have now is a high intensity game based on quick rucking, long kicks, a hard defence and a backline who can hit as hard as anyone. We are as fit, as strong and as powerful as any team in teh world… we now need to be as intense as the best team in the world, South Africa.

Problems

There are problems with this. Mike Phillips would be a huge asset for this style of rugby… Gareth Cooper is off form and we need him to be moving the ball away form the ruck as quickly as possible, with McCaw there ready to grab it whilst Cooper is slowing it down. But if he can we have a chance.

Paul James is another concern. In the last season and a half I have been very impressed with his improvement as a loosehead (especially last season), but I am not convinced he was of full international quality – and at tight head? I don’t know, I just hope Warren knows what he is doing. Adam Jones is almost perfect at pillaring rucks, if we play with a high intensity rucking game we need Paul James to do the same.

I would also like to have seen Ian Gough there. Luke Charteris is another who has impressed me with his improvement in form, and Bradley Davies has similarly been very impressive indeed. But Gough as a warhorse is unsurpassed in Wales in my opnion, his work rate, power, and ability to make the big hits when needed, would be a huge asset – not to mention the sheer number of rucks he hits.

But Warren gatland has selected his side and will have seen how South Africa not just beat but dominated New Zealand. We have the players and ability to do the same… we just need to believe, and to perform. Two aspects Wales have been short of in matches between these two nations in the last 50 years.

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Welsh rugby blog has just launched the Welsh Rugby Dungeon – an area of the blog featuring guest posts from anyone who is interested, hosted by the nutcase that is Prop Damo.  Check it out and let us know if you are interested in putting your own post up.

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John Yapp tore his bicep and is out for at least four months and will have an operation this week.

Bradley Davies suffered a soft tissue neck injury and will be out for at least two weeks.

Gareth Thomas’ injury is not as bad as first thought but he will not be training for at least 10 days with a groin injury, so realistically he will be out for two weeks.

Paul Tito is having more tests on his neck and head this week but looks like he’ll be out for two to three weeks.

Gethin Jenkins’s shoulder is more or less fine, but he has picked up a bit of a calf strain, we will know later in the week if he’s ok for this weekend’s match.

Martyn Williams is also three weeks away from playing again having had a shoulder operation in the summer.

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